Depending on how Khmer Rouge strongman Pol Pot plays his hand, that could be an understatement. Already his forces have massacred Vietnamese civilians and openly attacked U.N. workers, killing or injuring 56. They have confiscated Cambodians’ voting cards and warned people not to go to the polls; U.N. election workers have been barred entirely from the 20 percent of the country that the Khmer Rouge controls. U.N. intelligence reports say the rebels have built up their force of 7,000 to 10,000 guerrillas by distributing new weapons and moving units close to population centers. U.N. officials fear the rebels plan to destabilize the elections by mortaring election centers and ambushing U.N. forces. “A couple of rockets falling into Phnom Penh could make a big psychological difference,” says a senior U.N. official.
A vexed election is the only thing standing between the ruling party and clearcut victory. The Cambodian People’s Party, formerly the Vietnamese-backed communists, preaches that only its army can protect people from a return of the Khmer Rouge, responsible for killing up to a million Cambodians when it ruled the country in the 1970s. Prime Minister Hun Sen, the most popular CPP politician, warns voters that if any other party came to power they could forfeit their property. “The basic line is that if you vote against the CPP you could lose your house, farm and job,” says a Western diplomat in Phnom Penh. “It’s bullshit but still a powerful message.” But the CPP’s most effective tactics are dirty tricks. More than 50 opposition politicians have been slain since last October; police block voters from opposition rallies and try to convince them that their ballots won’t be secret. “We will have no trouble getting a comfortable majority,” Hun Sen told NEWSWEEK. “Now we are working hard to get a two-thirds majority so we can pass our new constitution quickly and get on with governing the country.”
The main opposition party has a different approach to the Khmer Rouge threat-coalition. Prince Norodom Ranariddh, leader of the United Front for an Independent, Neutral and Cooperative Cambodia, promises to form a national reconciliation government, probably including the rebels, under his deposed father, Prince Sihanouk. “We don’t want the Khmer Rouge, but neither do we want more war, so what do we do?” he asks. “Bring back Sihanouk,” roar the crowds. That line plays to Cambodian tradition, but it could backfire. “I’m not sure that many Cambodians want to see Sihanouk back in an executive capacity,” a U.N. official says. “Nor do I think they want Khmer Rouge cadres, who may have ordered the deaths of their families in the ’70s, running government ministries.”
Faced with the threat of becoming marginalized, the Khmer Rouge has simply chosen to fight sooner rather than later. One prime target during the election could be the populous province of Kampong Cham, on the east bank of the Mekong, which has 18 out of 120 parliamentary seats, the most of any province. If attacks seriously disrupt voting there, it would undermine the election’s credibility. But Pol Pot must also husband his forces for another all-out battle with Phnom Penh. The government is already talking about going on the offensive after the election. “We are prepared for combat,” Foreign Minister Hor Namhong said last week. Election violence may merely be the starting gun for a new round of carnage–exactly what the peace agreement was designed to prevent.
