Balkhi is one of a select group of leading Afghans who have converged this week on Koenigswinter to ponder the creation of a caretaker government for post-Taliban Afghanistan. By Day Three, it appeared that some progress had been made. Delegates agreed on the broad outline for a transitional government—an interim administration comprised of 15 to 25 people who would act as a sort of executive branch, plus a larger parliamentlike supreme council with 120 to 200 members.
The Northern Alliance also softened toward the idea of a possible position for the exiled king, Mohammad Zahir Shah, describing him as “an important national political figure” who could play “an important role.” In addition, the Alliance signaled the possibility of compromise on the question of a multinational peacekeeping force that could be sent in to ensure that none of the factions achieves dominance over the others in the all-important capital, Kabul.
Yesterday, Yunus Qanuni, head of the Northern Alliance delegation, was cool to the idea of a peacekeeping force, saying that “we prefer that security is looked after by the Afghans themselves.” But he quickly added that there had not been any discussion of the issue so far—implying that there could be compromise later—and that agreement on peacekeepers could become part of some sort of final “package” at the end of the conference. By today, he was saying that the Northern Alliance “will not oppose” the stationing of a multinational peacekeeper force once an interim government has been established. (Qanuni drew laughter at today’s press conference when he said that his change in position was the result of a “misunderstanding” ensuing from a bad translator at yesterday’s press conference. He had a different one today, and, he said, “I hope that we won’t have a third translator tomorrow.”)
Nonetheless, reports of agreement on a “peace deal” still look premature. The hard part is still ahead—getting down to the nuts and bolts of who will be chosen to staff the interim government. Critics also say that the four groups attending the conference—including the Northern Alliance and the Rome Group, representing the exiled Afghan king, Mohammad Zahir Shah—aren’t sufficiently representative of the wide variety of the country’s ethnic and political groups. Not at the negotiating table, for example, are members of the southern Pashtun tribes that have hitherto formed the backbone of the Taliban.
Still, while the imagery coming out of the former German capital this week may not look quite as dramatic as the pictures from the battlefields of Afghanistan, the Bonn colloquy could end up delivering a window for peace after 22 years of war.
The delegates are trying to come up with a quick fix for some smoldering problems. The sudden collapse of the Taliban has created a power vacuum in Afghanistan at large. By sweeping into Kabul on the heels of its retreating enemy, the Northern Alliance (or the United Front, as it prefers to be called) has awakened fears of a possible return to the chaos of 1992-96, when feuding warlords—many of whom still belong to the Alliance—reduced the city to rubble. One complicating factor: the Alliance forces now occupying the Afghan capital are mainly ethnic Tajiks (representing about 25 percent of the Afghan population) from just one of the many factions that make up the Alliance. Meanwhile, the security situation in the country as a whole is deteriorating, with aid convoys being hijacked and eight foreign journalists killed in areas supposedly under the Alliance control during the last three weeks.
Aggravating the situation still further is the deepening humanitarian crisis within the country. Millions of refugees are waiting for desperately needed food and fuel to survive the winter—but aid providers can’t deliver unless their convoys are safe. The United Nations, which is sponsoring the conference here in Bonn, hopes to solve these problems as quickly as possible. “I think the situation on the ground is moving fast, and it’s moving in ways that emphasize the need for the political process to catch up to what’s happening on the ground,” says U.S. diplomat James Dobbins, America’s envoy to the anti-Taliban opposition.
Conference organizers want the interim government to take charge just for a few months. After that, they hope, conditions inside will Afghanistan have settled enough to allow for the convening of a loye jirga, or grand assembly of Afghan leaders. That assembly will prepare the ground for a more enduring government, a constitution and, even farther down the road, free elections.
Amid all the maneuvering, the four groups share one good reason for getting to an accord by the end of the week: the intense pressure being brought to bear by the international community. The conference opened Tuesday with clear warnings from German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer and U.N. Special Representative to Afghanistan Lakhdar Brahimi. Both admonished the conference participants to find a path to compromise or kiss goodbye to a massive international aid package for Afghanistan already being promised by the world’s leading countries. Afghanistan, and the rest of the world, can hardly afford to let that happen.
